- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Overbought
- MACD Above signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $104.22 (+4.80%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 7.8%
- Naive MAPE
- 9.3%
- Skill
- +16%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 7.8% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 9.3% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.98) points to $104.22 (+4.79% from $99.45), with an 80% interval of $94.26–$114.17 (±10.0%). RSI(14) is 70.3 (overbought), MACD histogram is above signal (bullish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 7.8% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model beats naive baseline by 16%. Confidence: 44%.