- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Bearish
- MACD Below signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $76.54 (+0.00%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 9.0%
- Naive MAPE
- 8.0%
- Skill
- -12%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 9.0% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 8.0% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.85) points to $76.54 (+0.00% from $76.54), with an 80% interval of $67.74–$85.34 (±11.5%). RSI(14) is 33.5 (bearish), MACD histogram is below signal (bearish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 9.0% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model underperforms naive baseline by 12%. Confidence: 34%.