- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum RSI 49
- MACD Below signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $77.98 (-0.26%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 6.8%
- Naive MAPE
- 6.5%
- Skill
- -5%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 6.8% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 6.5% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.85) points to $77.98 (-0.26% from $78.18), with an 80% interval of $71.17–$84.79 (±8.7%). RSI(14) is 49.0 (neutral), MACD histogram is below signal (bearish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 6.8% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model essentially matches naive baseline. Confidence: 43%.