- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Bullish
- MACD Below signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $98.17 (+3.53%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 7.7%
- Naive MAPE
- 8.5%
- Skill
- +9%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 7.7% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 8.5% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.98) points to $98.17 (+3.54% from $94.82), with an 80% interval of $88.87–$107.48 (±9.8%). RSI(14) is 65.4 (bullish), MACD histogram is below signal (bearish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 7.7% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model essentially matches naive baseline. Confidence: 38%.