- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Oversold
- MACD Below signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $66.28 (-4.26%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 9.7%
- Naive MAPE
- 9.5%
- Skill
- -2%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 9.7% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 9.5% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.90) points to $66.28 (-4.26% from $69.23), with an 80% interval of $57.66–$74.90 (±12.5%). RSI(14) is 28.1 (oversold), MACD histogram is below signal (bearish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 9.7% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model essentially matches naive baseline. Confidence: 25%.