- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Bearish
- MACD Below signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $73.00 (-2.35%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 6.8%
- Naive MAPE
- 6.9%
- Skill
- +1%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 6.8% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 6.9% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.85) points to $73.00 (-2.36% from $74.76), with an 80% interval of $66.51–$79.49 (±8.7%). RSI(14) is 42.8 (bearish), MACD histogram is below signal (bearish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 6.8% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model essentially matches naive baseline. Confidence: 42%.