- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Overbought
- MACD Above signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $106.83 (+2.62%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 7.0%
- Naive MAPE
- 6.8%
- Skill
- -3%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 7.0% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 6.8% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.90) points to $106.83 (+2.62% from $104.10), with an 80% interval of $97.45–$116.20 (±9.0%). RSI(14) is 73.3 (overbought), MACD histogram is above signal (bullish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 7.0% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model essentially matches naive baseline. Confidence: 45%.