- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Overbought
- MACD Above signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $106.48 (+4.83%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 8.2%
- Naive MAPE
- 9.1%
- Skill
- +10%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 8.2% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 9.1% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.98) points to $106.48 (+4.83% from $101.57), with an 80% interval of $95.88–$117.07 (±10.4%). RSI(14) is 80.5 (overbought), MACD histogram is above signal (bullish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 8.1% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model beats naive baseline by 10%. Confidence: 40%.